Orange County Housing Market Forecast 2027: What to Expect

The main housing forecasts published as of October 2026 expect home prices in 2027 to be flat to slightly higher, not to fall broadly, and they disagree on mortgage rates. The California Association of REALTORS (C.A.R.) projects California's median single-family price rising 1.4% in 2027 with 30-year rates averaging 6.6%, while Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expect rates to stay above 7%. Zillow projects typical home values in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro, which includes Orange County, to be 1.9% higher in September 2027 than in September 2026.

No major forecaster publishes a 2027 home price forecast for Orange County on its own. Cal State Fullerton's 2027 forecast, released October 22, 2026, covers the county's jobs but not its home prices, and Chapman University's annual economic forecast is scheduled for December 10, 2026. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) and Realtor.com had not published 2027 forecasts as of October 31, 2026.

Below are each forecast's figures and release date, where they agree and disagree, the local factors to watch, and what it means if you plan to buy or sell. For the latest monthly county figures, see our Orange County housing market report.

What each forecaster expects for 2027

C.A.R.: 2027 California Housing Market Forecast (October 7, 2026)

C.A.R.'s baseline forecast for existing single-family homes in California:

Sales: 277,900 in 2027, up 3.7% from a projected 268,100 in 2026.
Median price: $894,400, up 1.4% from a projected $882,200 in 2026.
Mortgage rates: a 6.6% average for the 30-year fixed, the same as its 2026 projection.
Affordability: 20% of California households able to afford the median-priced home, unchanged from its 2026 projection.
Jobs: nonfarm job growth of 0.3% in both 2026 and 2027, with the state unemployment rate dipping to 5.4% in 2027 from 5.5% in 2026.

C.A.R.'s chief economist, Jordan Levine, said the mortgage lock-in effect, owners holding on to low-rate loans, will keep many potential sellers on the sidelines, but that California inventory should loosen in 2027. The forecast is statewide: C.A.R.'s release and forecast tables do not break out Southern California or Orange County.

Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast (October 12, 2026)

Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group publishes a national forecast each month. Its October 2026 housing forecast projects:

Home prices: the Fannie Mae Home Price Index up 0.6% in 2027, measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, after 2.7% in 2026.
Sales: about 4.06 million existing home sales in 2027, including condos and co-ops, up 0.7% from about 4.03 million in 2026.
Mortgage rates: a 7.5% average for the 30-year fixed in 2027, up from a 6.7% average in 2026.

Fannie Mae notes that its interest rate forecasts are based on rates as of September 30, 2026.

MBA: 2027 outlook (October 11, 2026)

The MBA presented its 2027 outlook at its annual convention. It expects:

Mortgage rates: a 7.3% average for the 30-year rate in the fourth quarter of 2026, staying above 7% through 2027, with the 10-year Treasury yield close to 5%.
Home prices: national price growth slowing in 2027 before gradually picking up in 2028, with relatively flat home sales. The release did not give a price percentage.
Federal Reserve: after a quarter-point increase in September 2026, two more quarter-point increases, one in December 2026 and one in the first quarter of 2027.
Unemployment: rising slightly from 4.2% to an average of 4.3% over 2027.

Zillow: home value forecast (October 2026)

Zillow forecasts its Zillow Home Value Index, a measure of the typical value of all homes, condos included. Its forecast published in October 2026, based on September 2026 data, projects:

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro: values down 1.0% from September to December 2026, then 1.9% higher in September 2027 than in September 2026. Zillow places Orange County in this metro.
United States: values 1.1% higher over the same 12 months.

Zillow's year-ahead window ends in September 2027, so it is not a calendar-year forecast.

Cal State Fullerton: 2027 Economic Forecast (October 22, 2026)

Economists at Cal State Fullerton's Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting presented their forecast with the Orange County Business Council. For Orange County they project:

Jobs: payroll employment little changed in 2026, then up 0.44% in 2027.
Unemployment: 4.1% in 2026, unchanged from 2025, rising to 4.3% in 2027.
Mortgage rates: in the report's national table, the 30-year fixed at 7.35% at the end of 2026 and 7.42% at the end of 2027.

The report does not forecast Orange County home prices. It notes that the county's median single-family price has risen at an average annual rate of 4.6% since 2023, against 1.9% statewide, and attributes much of the difference to a chronic shortage of homes for sale.

Forecasts not yet published

As of October 31, 2026:

Chapman University: its annual Economic Forecast is scheduled for December 10, 2026.
NAR: its most recent forecast, released June 16, 2026, covers 2026 only.
Realtor.com: its research site still features its 2026 housing forecast, and no 2027 forecast had been posted.

We won't guess at those numbers.

Where the 2027 forecasts agree and disagree

They agree that prices should not fall broadly in 2027. The forecasts that give a price figure range from 0.6% (Fannie Mae, national) to 1.9% (Zillow, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro), with C.A.R. at 1.4% for California. None projects a decline over its full forecast period, although Zillow expects a dip in the last months of 2026. The MBA, which gave no figure, expects national price growth to slow.

They agree that sales will improve only modestly. C.A.R. expects California sales to rise 3.7%, Fannie Mae expects national existing home sales to rise 0.7%, and the MBA expects relatively flat sales.

They disagree on mortgage rates, the biggest variable. C.A.R. expects a 6.6% average. Fannie Mae expects 7.5%, the MBA expects rates above 7% all year, and Cal State Fullerton expects 7.42% at the end of 2027. For comparison, Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.24% on October 29, 2026, up from 6.17% a year earlier. C.A.R.'s forecast assumes rates come down from that level; the others assume they stay above 7%.

They differ on inventory. C.A.R. expects California inventory to loosen in 2027. Cal State Fullerton says that with mortgage rates high and the Federal Reserve raising rates again, the lock-in effect in Orange County is unlikely to ease soon.

The Orange County factors that matter in 2027

Inventory

Orange County had 3.0 months of unsold single-family inventory in September 2026, the same as a year earlier, according to C.A.R. Cal State Fullerton reported about 4,900 active listings at the summer 2026 peak, roughly the same as a year earlier and about a third below the roughly 7,600 of 2019. That short supply is the main reason Cal State Fullerton gives for Orange County prices outpacing the state's.

Affordability

C.A.R.'s Housing Affordability Index measures the share of households that could afford the median-priced single-family home with 20% down. In the second quarter of 2026, 15% of Orange County households could afford the $1,485,000 median, and the minimum qualifying income was $370,000. Statewide, the share was 19%. C.A.R.'s forecast of steady statewide affordability in 2027 goes with its 6.6% rate forecast; higher rates would put the median-priced home within reach of fewer households.

Mortgage rates

At Orange County prices, a one-point change in the mortgage rate moves the monthly payment far more than a 1% or 2% change in price. For local buyers, the gap between C.A.R.'s 6.6% and the 7%-plus forecasts matters more than the small differences in the price forecasts.

Local jobs

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) reported Orange County's unemployment rate at 4.3% in September 2026, down from a revised 4.5% in August and 4.4% a year earlier. The county had 9,900 more nonfarm jobs than in September 2025, a 0.6% gain. Cal State Fullerton expects job growth to stay slow in 2027, as it has been for the past two years.

Where prices stand now

C.A.R. reported Orange County's single-family median at $1,480,000 in September 2026, 5.6% above September 2025. Our monthly market report tracks the trend over several months.

What the 2027 forecasts mean for buyers

None of the price forecasts published as of October 2026 calls for prices to fall over the coming year in the areas they cover. Waiting for a broad price drop means expecting something no forecaster has projected. Still, whether to buy now or in 2027 depends more on your payment comfort, savings, time horizon and income than on any forecast, and our guide to buying in 2026 or waiting until 2027 walks through each factor.

Plan around today's rate, not a forecast. Build your budget from a payment you can manage at the rate you can get now. If C.A.R.'s lower rate forecast proves right, refinancing later may be an option, but it costs money and is not guaranteed. Our guide to buying a home with high interest rates explains how seller credits and rate buydowns can lower the payment.

The MBA reported in October 2026 that almost 10% of mortgage applications were for adjustable-rate loans. If you consider one, know what happens when the rate resets; our overview of fixed and adjustable home loans covers the trade-offs.

Fall and winter can also help. In its September 2026 report, C.A.R. said competition was easing and well-prepared buyers may have more room to negotiate. Homes that have been listed for a while are often where that room shows up.

What the 2027 forecasts mean for sellers

Expect modest price movement, at most. With forecasters projecting low single-digit gains, price your home from the most recent comparable sales in your area, not from spring highs or from where you hope the market goes.

Remember what your buyers pay to borrow: Freddie Mac's average 30-year rate was above 7% in late October 2026. A higher rate limits what a buyer can pay each month, so a credit toward a rate buydown is worth comparing with a price reduction when an offer comes in below your number.

Watch inventory. If C.A.R. is right that California inventory loosens in 2027, you may face more competing listings. If Cal State Fullerton is right that lock-in keeps Orange County supply tight, competition among sellers stays limited. Either way, condition and pricing decide how quickly a home sells.

If you are moving up or across the county, you will likely be buying at today's rates too. Our seller reality check covers equity, your next-home plan and the cost of giving up a low-rate loan.

How to read a housing forecast

Forecasts are revised often. In October 2026, C.A.R. projected that California's 2026 median would end the year up 0.8% with rates averaging 6.6%, well short of the gain and the lower rates it had forecast a year earlier. Our Orange County forecast for 2026 compares last year's predictions with the results so far.

A few other cautions:

The measures differ. C.A.R. forecasts California's median sold price for existing single-family homes, Fannie Mae a national price index, and Zillow a typical-value index, condos included, for a metro that also covers Los Angeles County. None is an Orange County median.
Medians move with the mix of homes sold. A month with more large or coastal sales can lift the county median even if individual homes did not gain value.
Check the date. Fannie Mae and the MBA publish new forecasts every month, and a rate forecast can change quickly when rates move.

How Remark Homes can help

Forecasts set the backdrop; your decision depends on your neighborhood, price range and timeline. We pull recent comparable sales for the homes or areas you are considering and show you what they mean for an offer or a list price at current rates. Learn about our home buying services and home selling services.

Frequently asked questions

Will home prices drop in Orange County in 2027?

None of the price forecasts published as of October 2026 projects a decline over its full forecast period. Zillow expects values in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro to dip 1.0% from September to December 2026 and then be 1.9% higher in September 2027 than a year earlier, and C.A.R. projects California's median up 1.4%. No major forecaster publishes a 2027 price forecast for Orange County alone.

What will mortgage rates be in 2027?

Forecasts differ. C.A.R. expects a 6.6% average for the 30-year fixed, Fannie Mae expects 7.5%, the MBA expects rates above 7% all year, and Cal State Fullerton expects 7.42% at the end of 2027. Freddie Mac's weekly average was 7.24% on October 29, 2026.

What is the California housing market forecast for 2027?

C.A.R.'s forecast, released October 7, 2026, projects California existing single-family sales rising 3.7% to 277,900 and the median price rising 1.4% to $894,400, with 30-year rates averaging 6.6% and 20% of households able to afford the median-priced home.

When will Chapman University release its 2027 Orange County forecast?

Chapman's annual Economic Forecast is scheduled for December 10, 2026. Until then, the most recent Orange County outlook is Cal State Fullerton's, released October 22, 2026, which covers jobs but not home prices.

Orange County Housing Market Forecast 2027: What Forecasters Expect